OpenAI reports a one-sample matroid prophet inequality against full-seed ordering

For every finite matroid, one independent sample per element supports an online rule with expected reward at least 2^-310 times the expected offline optimum, even when the arrival-order adversary sees all samples, online values, and the rule’s seed.

Sources for this record

What was already known

One-sample guarantees for general matroids were known, but the manuscript says they lost a factor depending on rank or used weaker arrival models. Known-distribution guarantees also did not give the adversary unseen values and the full random seed.

AI involvement AI-led

OpenAI credits itself as manuscript author and states that its internal frontier model produced the results in this release. Individual human input is not detailed enough to establish task-only autonomy.

OpenAI is named as author on the manuscript, and its release attributes the results to an internal frontier model. The individual human input is not detailed enough to establish autonomy.

Importance Notable

Gives a constant independent of matroid rank under an unusually strong adversarial arrival model.

Limitations

Values must be nonnegative and independent across elements; each sample is paired with an identically distributed online value. The rule is not claimed to run in polynomial time.

Technical verification Formal (Lean 4)

OpenAI reports a Lean proof matching the selected claim.

Formal checking

The pinned OpenAI Lean scope note identifies this selected claim.

Checker
OpenAI-reported Lean 4 / Comparator
Scope
For every finite matroid, one independent sample per element supports an online rule with expected reward at least 2^-310 times the expected offline optimum, even when the arrival-order adversary sees all samples, online values, and the rule’s seed.
Basis
Reported by the linked checker
Evidence source

Checking a formal statement does not establish that it matches the original problem.

Human understanding Few

Few is the default when evidence for a higher level is insufficient. No named person is documented as explaining the central argument for this assessed contribution.

Correction and publication history

2026-10-18 · publication

Primary manuscript, attribution, prior-work, and scoped checking review for non-notifying local inclusion.

Read this published revision